S. Korea, US and Japan Foreign Ministers to Convene in Manila This Week

South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Hyun is set to sit down with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi in Manila on Wednesday, as the three allies use the sidelines of ASEAN-related ministerial meetings to coordinate policy on North Korea and deepen trilateral security and economic ties. The gathering comes roughly two weeks after the same three officials met on the margins of the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7.

Beyond the trilateral session, diplomatic attention is centered on whether Cho and Rubio will also hold a formal one-on-one meeting. Seoul's Foreign Ministry is separately arranging bilateral talks with the United States, Japan and China, but a dedicated Cho-Rubio sit-down remains unconfirmed. Several thorny issues continue to strain the Seoul-Washington relationship, including a dispute involving e-commerce firm Coupang after a U.S. House Judiciary Committee report accused South Korean authorities of regulatory discrimination against the American-owned company, as well as unresolved follow-up steps tied to Seoul's $350 billion investment pledge in the United States. South Korea's ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, returned to Seoul from July 15 to 19 for consultations with Cho and other officials on these pending matters, and the government says it is working to finalize the first projects under the investment commitment.

Even without a formal bilateral, officials expect Cho and Rubio to have ample opportunity for substantive exchanges on the sidelines of the trilateral and other multilateral sessions in Manila. The three ministers are expected to review North Korea policy, trilateral security cooperation, economic security, and broader regional and global developments, including the Middle East conflict and South China Sea tensions that typically dominate ASEAN-linked talks.

North Korea's deepening ties with Russia and China are likely to feature prominently. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Park Il told reporters Tuesday that Seoul is closely watching recent exchanges between Pyongyang and both Moscow and Beijing, citing North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui's recent trip to Russia and heightened North Korea-China contacts marking the 65th anniversary of their bilateral friendship treaty. Park said Seoul would keep pressing for those exchanges to support peace and stability on the peninsula and encourage the North's return to dialogue.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's expected attendance at the ASEAN Regional Forum is also drawing scrutiny, with Seoul hoping to gauge Moscow's current thinking on North Korea following Choe's meetings with President Vladimir Putin and Lavrov. During their Ankara meeting, Cho, Rubio and Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to the Korean Peninsula's complete denuclearization and signed a cooperation framework to promote small modular reactor deployment in third countries across the Indo-Pacific.

On the sidelines of the Manila gatherings, Cho is also scheduled for bilateral talks with counterparts from Australia, Thailand, New Zealand, Brunei and the Philippines. The ASEAN Regional Forum, the only multilateral security forum North Korea has historically joined, will convene as well, though Pyongyang is expected to skip it for a second straight year. Cho is expected to use the forum to reaffirm Seoul's commitment to peaceful coexistence on the peninsula while urging Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.